Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
